PiCK

"U.S. Supreme Court could rule as soon as the 20th on constitutionality of 'Trump tariffs'…Loss could trigger refunds of up to $175 billion"

Uk Jin

Summary

It reported that the U.S. Supreme Court could rule as soon as the 20th on whether the Trump tariffs are unconstitutional.
It said that if the Trump administration loses, the possibility of refunds of up to $175 billion has been raised.
It reported that JPMorgan expects the S&P 500 to move about 2% up or down if tariffs are upheld, invalidated, or a decision is delayed.

Global financial markets are on edge amid growing expectations that the U.S. Supreme Court could issue a ruling as soon as the 20th (local time) on whether the tariff measures implemented by former President Donald Trump are unconstitutional. In particular, if the Trump administration loses, it has been suggested that refunds may be required totaling as much as $175 billion (about 250 trillion won).

According to foreign media including Yahoo Finance, the Court is set to convene at 10 a.m. that day (12:00 a.m. on the 21st Korea time) for the first time in several weeks. Markets believe the meeting could produce a decision on the Trump administration’s tariffs.

The U.S. Supreme Court will determine whether Trump’s imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was lawful or unlawful.

If the Trump administration loses, the fiscal fallout is expected to be significant. The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), affiliated with the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, estimated that if the Court invalidates the tariffs, up to $175 billion in tariffs collected since early 2025 would have to be refunded.

However, some argue that whatever decision the Court issues this time may not be the final resolution of the matter.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan forecast that the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 could move about 2% up or down under three scenarios—tariffs upheld, invalidated, or a decision delayed.