[Analysis] "Bitcoin entering a phase resembling the late stage of a bear market… possible long-term range between $60,000 and $75,000"

Bitcoin (BTC), which suffered a sharp drop early this month, may have entered a phase similar to the late stage of a bear market. Still, analysts say it is difficult to expect a rapid rebound in the near term.

According to CoinDesk on the 21st (local time), Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, wrote in a recent report that “the current market environment is very similar to late September and mid-November 2022—right before the bear-market bottom.” At the time, Bitcoin traded sideways for an extended period between $15,000 and $20,000, down about 70% from its 2021 peak. Now, too, Bitcoin is continuing a relatively quiet move in the $65,000–$70,000 range.

K33’s regime model (a combined analysis of derivatives indicators, ETF flows, technical signals and macro variables) shows the market is nearing a cyclical low. Spot trading volume plunged 59% week on week, while open interest in perpetual futures fell to the lowest level in four months. Funding rates have also broadly remained in negative territory, suggesting that overheated leverage has largely been unwound. This, the report says, is a typical cooling phase in which positions are reset after large-scale liquidations.

Holdings of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also fallen by 103,113 BTC from early October, marking the largest drawdown from the peak. Even so, more than 90% of BTC-denominated holdings remain intact despite a roughly 50% price correction—an indication, analysts say, that the market is far from a structural breakdown. The Fear & Greed Index has slipped to 5 recently, hitting an all-time low, underscoring extremely depressed sentiment.

Lunde projected that “Bitcoin is likely close to a global bottom, but could trade sideways for a prolonged period between $60,000 and $75,000.” James Check, an on-chain analyst and co-founder of Checkonchain, also said, “Bitcoin is quiet for most of the time, but repricing phases—where it jumps 100% in certain quarters—tend to be concentrated,” adding that “if you miss that window, you may miss the entire upswing.”

Ultimately, while the current phase may be a quiet and tedious sideways market, history has repeatedly shown that patient investors have been rewarded, the report said.