PiCK

Wall Street focuses on tariff uncertainty… Shanghai stocks eye Lunar New Year消费 bounce [Weekly outlook]

Source

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

The New York stock market is said to be focusing on ongoing uncertainty following President Trump’s imposition of tariffs and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that reciprocal tariffs are illegal.
Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings release, the AI bubble narrative and the possibility of hyperscalers cutting capital expenditure are said to be stoking investor anxiety.
Shanghai stocks are expected to be influenced by post-holiday domestic consumption and services indicators, China’s economic growth target and a “self-reliance and self-strengthening” technology-innovation message, affecting growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI.

Weekly outlook for New York and Shanghai stocks

U.S. court rules reciprocal tariffs illegal

Markets watch spillover effects closely

Focus on whether China consumption rebounds on Lunar New Year

Investors in U.S. stocks are expected to focus this week (23–27) on the impact of newly imposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on financial markets, as well as Nvidia’s fourth-quarter results.

On the 20th (local time), the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s reciprocal-tariff policy was illegal, but the president said he would use various trade laws to impose tariffs.

As tariff-related uncertainty persists, so does the uncertainty the New York stock market must absorb.

Nvidia’s Q4 results for last year, due on the 25th, are also an event investors will be watching closely this week. Nvidia shares hit a record high of $212.190 in late October last year and have since traded sideways in the $180 range for nearly four months. Concerns over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and the possibility that hyperscalers may cut capital expenditure are weighing on investor sentiment. On the 27th, the U.S. January Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released.

Shanghai stocks, closed for the Lunar New Year holiday from the 16th to the 23rd, will resume regular trading from the 24th.

The first data point investors will check is domestic consumption data over the holiday period. How much China’s recent Achilles’ heel—weak consumption—recovered during the Lunar New Year peak season is expected to determine the near-term direction. In particular, if indicators for services such as travel, films and dining out beat expectations, hopes for a “Lunar New Year rally” could grow.

The market’s gaze is already turning to the National People’s Congress, which opens on March 5. In the market, views are split over whether the Chinese government will set this year’s economic growth target at around 5%, similar to last year, or lower it in light of more realistic conditions.

In addition, as tariff pressure from the second Trump administration intensifies, a technology-innovation message centered on “self-reliance and self-strengthening” from China’s leadership is also expected to have a major impact on growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI.

New York—Park Shin-young, correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com