[Analysis] “Bitcoin fails to hold above the zero line in Coinbase premium… short-term bearish pressure”

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fluctuate around the $64,000 level, an analysis says the recovery in U.S. spot demand is being delayed as the Coinbase Premium Index failed to establish itself above the zero line.

On the 23rd (local time), CryptoQuant contributor nino said, “Bitcoin is trading near $64,700, and the 30-minute simple moving average (SMA-30) of the Coinbase Premium Index briefly moved above the zero line but failed to hold,” adding that “this suggests dollar-based spot buying from the U.S. has not structurally returned, and combined with the recent price correction, is a factor reinforcing short-term downside pressure.”

The Coinbase premium measures the difference between Coinbase’s BTC/USD price and Binance’s BTC/USDT price. If the premium stays above zero, it is regarded as a signal of inflows from U.S. institutions or dollar-based buying. By contrast, if it fails to hold the zero line and returns to negative territory, it indicates that U.S. demand has not recovered in a sustained trend.

Market participants see whether the Coinbase premium can turn positive in a stable manner as a potential leading indicator of a short-term trend reversal. If the pattern of breaking above zero and failing to hold repeats as it is now, analysts say it is hard to rule out the possibility that Bitcoin will test the lower end of its range.