Spot Bitcoin ETFs Seen Posting Net Outflows for a Fourth Straight Month…Funds Shift to Gold ETFs

U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are increasingly likely to post net outflows for a fourth consecutive month.

As of the 23rd (local time), net assets of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $84.3 billion, down to about half of the $170.0 billion peak recorded in October 2025. Cumulative net inflows also narrowed to $54.0 billion from $63.0 billion, and cumulative net inflows since July 2025 totaled just $5.0 billion, underscoring a clear slowdown in inflows.

Since November, ETF holdings have fallen by roughly 87,000 BTC, including about 15,000 BTC in February alone. Total ETF holdings now stand at around 1.26 million BTC, down from the 1.36 million BTC peak.

By product, BlackRock’s IBIT holdings declined about 6% to 759,000 BTC from 806,000 BTC, while Fidelity’s FBTC fell more than 12% to 186,000 BTC from 213,000 BTC. While the drop in ETF balances has been relatively modest compared with Bitcoin’s price decline, net outflows dominated in seven of the most recent seven trading sessions, and several large single-day outflows were also recorded. Market participants say at least three consecutive trading days of net inflows would need to be confirmed before ETF demand can be viewed as recovering.

Fund flows appear to be rotating into gold ETFs. Over the past 90 days, gold ETF inflows expanded in periods when Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed or turned negative. In particular, between March and October 2025, gold ETFs saw strong inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs weakened over the same period. The shift is being interpreted as a move into assets with lower volatility and more defensive characteristics in a real-rate environment.

The macro backdrop is also a headwind. Although the Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening, real rates remain elevated. With the 10-year real yield holding in the high 1% range, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin has increased. Looking at past episodes, analysts say a meaningful resumption of ETF inflows has tended to require a decline in real rates or a clear entry into an easing cycle.