[Analysis] "Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Falls Below 1…Shift to a 'Loss-Realization Phase'"
Summary
- Glassnode said the 90-day simple moving average of Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio fell below 1, indicating the market has entered a period of excess loss realizing where loss realization outweighs profit-taking.
- It noted that in past cycles the indicator remained below 1 for more than six months before recovering above 1, which was interpreted as an early sign of liquidity gradually returning.
- Glassnode added that inflows tend to resume after loss-realization pressure is absorbed, assessing this as a positive sign that liquidity is flowing back into the market.
On-chain analysis suggests the Bitcoin (BTC) market has entered a full-fledged loss-realization phase.
According to Glassnode on the 23rd (local time), the 90-day simple moving average (90D-SMA) of the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio fell below 1. A reading below 1 means realized losses outweigh realized profits in the market, pointing to a regime shift into a period of excess loss realizing.
Looking at past cycles, the indicator tended to remain below 1 for extended periods. Historically, it stayed under 1 for more than six months before recovering back above 1, a pattern interpreted as an early sign of liquidity gradually returning. In other words, inflows resumed after loss-realization pressure had been sufficiently absorbed. Glassnode assessed this as "a positive sign that liquidity is flowing back into the market."
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.
