Saylor: “Bitcoin down 45%—similar to Apple in 2013… now moving through the ‘valley of despair’”

With Bitcoin (BTC) down about 45% from its peak, Michael Saylor compared the move to Apple’s 2013 share-price plunge, arguing that it marks entry into the recurring “valley of despair” seen in long-term technology investing.

According to crypto media outlet CoinDesk on the 24th, Saylor said in a recent podcast interview, “There has never been a successful technology investment that didn’t endure a 45% drawdown,” adding, “Right now, we’re moving through that valley of despair.”

He cited Apple’s 2013 case. At the time, Apple shares fell 45% from their peak, and the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) dropped to below 10x. Despite the iPhone already being mainstream, the market failed to show conviction in the company’s growth prospects, he said. It took about 7 years for Apple to fully regain its prior enterprise value.

Saylor said, “This correction has lasted 137 days so far,” adding, “It could take 2 years, 3 years, or even 7 years—the same process as Apple.”

Bitcoin hit an all-time high around $125,000 in October last year, then fell to roughly $63,000. In particular, on Feb. 5 alone it plunged from $70,000 to $60,000, generating about $3.2 billion in realized losses by Glassnode’s estimate. This was tallied as the largest single-day loss on record, surpassing the Terra–Luna collapse.

Saylor pointed to structural changes in the derivatives market as a reason this cycle has been milder than past ones. As derivatives trading shifted from overseas venues to regulated U.S. markets, volatility was compressed in both directions, and drawdowns that once reached as much as 80% were limited to about 40–50% this time, he argued.

He also noted that traditional banks have been reluctant to extend credit secured by Bitcoin. As a result, some investors end up relying on rehypothecation structures, which could amplify selling pressure during periods of market stress.

On the threat from quantum computers, he brushed it off as “a remote issue.” He said it would take significant time before quantum computing becomes a practical threat, and that before then the Bitcoin network—along with governments and the financial system—can respond technologically. He added that the recent issue involving Jeffrey Epstein is also nothing more than fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD).