Bitcoin on-chain indicators normalize… Market watches for signs of a rebound in spot demand

As Bitcoin trades sideways below $65,000, key on-chain indicators have returned to long-term average levels, drawing growing attention to when spot demand may recover.

According to Cointelegraph on the 24th (local time), Bitcoin was trading around $63,880, while the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV)—a measure of investor profitability—moved out of the overheated zone and approached its long-term average. MVRV gauges network-wide profitability by comparing market capitalization with realized market capitalization.

Chris Bimisi, an analyst at Glassnode, said MVRV has fully worked off all prior territory above +1 standard deviation. He explained that “valuations have compressed to the historical average,” adding that “the risk-reward ratio has moved closer to an improved zone, but it is not yet in deeply undervalued territory.”

Realized market capitalization has fallen by about $33 billion, from a peak of $1.12 trillion in November 2025 to $1.09 trillion recently. The 30-day change rate stands at -2.26%, indicating continued capital outflows.

Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher, said coins held for between three and six months account for 25.9% of total supply. He described the current setup as a “neutral defensive phase,” adding that “until realized market cap turns back to growth, it is difficult to view this as a clear trend reversal.”

Exchange order-flow data showed a similar pattern. Glassnode data indicate spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) improved from -$177.10 million to -$161.50 million, suggesting some easing in aggressive selling pressure. CVD refers to the cumulative difference between market-buy and market-sell orders.

However, spot trading volume fell from $7.6 billion to $6.0 billion, underscoring that market participation remains limited. Cointelegraph said that if Bitcoin holds the $62,000–$64,000 range and CVD flattens, it could indicate that supply is being gradually absorbed. Whether spot demand rebounds is cited as a key variable for the next trend shift.