Bitcoin’s renewed push for $70,000 meets ‘caution’ signal from derivatives markets

Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to reclaim $70,000, but futures and options markets are still showing signs of caution.

According to Cointelegraph on the 26th (local time), Bitcoin rebounded after sliding to $62,500 the previous day and retested the $70,000 level. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows totaling $764 million over two days, partly offsetting $1.2 billion in net outflows over the prior eight trading sessions. Analysts say institutional demand is emerging when prices fall below $65,000.

The tone in the derivatives market, however, looks somewhat different. The annualized premium on two-month Bitcoin futures is hovering around 2%, well below the neutral benchmark of 5%. That suggests demand for leveraged bullish positions remains subdued. Another overhang cited is the lack of a clear bullish momentum since Bitcoin lost the $85,000 support level on January 31.

Options markets also point to a preference for hedging downside risk. On a 30-day delta skew basis, put options traded at a 14% premium versus calls. Given that the typical neutral range is between -6% and +6%, the figure still reflects ‘fear.’ That said, it is a moderation from the 28% panic-zone level seen two days earlier.

Views also diverge on what is driving the weakness. Following a sharp drop on October 10 last year, prices fell 32% over seven weeks, and roughly $19 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated at the time. Some analyses say heightened volatility tied to the U.S. announcement of a 100% tariff increase on China played a role.

Other factors being cited include quantum-computing risk and allegations related to Jane Street. After the bankruptcy administrator for Terraform Labs filed an insider-trading lawsuit against Jane Street over the 2022 Terra-Luna collapse, some market participants raised questions about possible links to derivatives positions. CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno said such activity is likely part of a delta-neutral strategy.

Meanwhile, broader risk-off sentiment—illustrated by Nvidia shares falling 5% after its earnings release—has also been cited as a factor keeping Bitcoin from regaining $75,000.