Bitcoin down 30% vs. gold up 153%... Divergence widens as risk appetite fades

Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are moving in opposite directions as risk appetite weakens.

According to Cointelegraph on the 27th (local time), since the start of 2024 gold prices have risen 153%, while Bitcoin has fallen about 30% over the same period. The gap is being attributed to a cooling in risk-on sentiment despite an expansion in global liquidity.

Global money supply (M2) has continued to increase, but speculative demand—centered on tech stocks—is seen to be in a downshift. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global macro director, said, “Gold is moving closely with global liquidity like a textbook bull-market asset,” describing it as a “pure hard-money asset.” On Bitcoin, Timmer explained that “over the long term it tracks money-supply growth, but during short-term surge phases it has shown strong co-movement with high-beta assets such as software and SaaS stocks.”

Indeed, when tech stocks posted double-digit gains in 2017–2018 and 2020–2021, Bitcoin also rallied sharply. Conversely, when tech stocks plunged in 2022, Bitcoin likewise underwent a severe correction. This is seen as suggesting that Bitcoin combines “hard money” characteristics with the traits of a high-risk growth asset. The current view is that liquidity remains ample, but speculative sentiment has retrenched.

Meanwhile, demand for gold-linked products is also increasing on crypto exchanges. Binance launched a gold futures product in early January, with cumulative trading volume nearing $35 billion. The surge in activity immediately after a short-term pullback in gold prices suggests that preference for traditional safe-haven assets is spreading onto digital-asset platforms.

By contrast, the total value of Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), XRP and major stablecoins held on Binance has fallen to about $102 billion, the lowest level since April 2025. This is interpreted as the combined result of price declines and a shift toward self-custody. Shrinking on-exchange liquidity may, in the near term, point to more conservative positioning and a thinner bid, analysts say.