Trump claims 'Khamenei dead'… odds of Khamenei being ousted jump to 98%

Uk Jin

Summary

On decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the odds for the bet “Will Leader Khamenei step down by March 31?” surged to 98%.
After U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Khamenei had died, large amounts of money have been pouring into related bets.
However, there has been no official confirmation from Iran or Israel, and no independent verification of whether Khamenei is alive or dead.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

As the Middle East conflict enters its second day, large sums of money are flowing into related bets on prediction markets. In particular, claims that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has died appear to have sharply boosted the perceived likelihood of his ouster.

According to decentralized prediction market Polymarket on the 1st (Korea time), traders in a bet asking, “Will Leader Khamenei step down by March 31?” are pricing in a 98% probability that Khamenei will be forced out.

The move is widely seen as having been driven by an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump reported early this morning. On the 28th (local time), Trump wrote on social media platform Truth Social, “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, has died.”

He added, “Khamenei died in the airstrikes,” and warned, “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be immune for now, but in the end it will receive only death.”

However, there has been no official confirmation from the Iranian government or Israel so far. There has also been no independent verification of whether Khamenei is alive or dead.