Summary
- It reported that on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, a bet asking whether Leader Khamenei will step down by March 31 is being priced at a 98% probability of ouster.
- It said the sharp jump in the odds appears to have been driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement on the social media platform Truth Social claiming that Khamenei has died.
- It added that there has still been no official confirmation from the Iranian government or Israel, and no independent verification of whether Khamenei is alive.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
As the Middle East conflict enters its second day, large sums of money are flowing into related bets on prediction markets. In particular, claims that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has died appear to have sharply raised the perceived likelihood of his ouster.
According to the decentralized prediction market Polymarket on April 1 (Korea time), traders in a bet asking, “Will Leader Khamenei step down by March 31?” are pricing in a 98% probability that Khamenei will be ousted.
This appears to have been influenced by an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump reported early that morning. On March 28 (local time), President Trump wrote on the social media platform Truth Social, “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, has died.”
Trump added, “Khamenei died amid airstrikes,” and warned that “the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be immune for now, but later it will gain only death.”
However, there has been no official confirmation so far from either the Iranian government or Israel. Nor has there been any independent verification of whether Khamenei is alive.
Uk Jin
wook9629@bloomingbit.ioH3LLO, World! I am Uk Jin.
