Bitcoin futures open interest down 20%…leveraged demand cools

Open interest in the Bitcoin (BTC) futures market fell 20% over the past month, shrinking to about $32 billion.

According to Cointelegraph on the 2nd (local time), current demand for Bitcoin futures stands at 491,300 BTC, the lowest level since August 2024. Forced liquidations of bullish positions during the recent sharp selloff are seen as having contributed.

Since Bitcoin hit its record high of $126,200 in October 2025, demand for leveraged bullish bets has broadly retreated. The annualized premium (basis) on front-month futures has dropped to 2%, marking the lowest level in a year. The neutral range is typically assessed at 5–10%. In particular, the fact that the basis has failed to hold a bullish range consistently over the past 12 months—including the 50% rally in April–May 2025—suggests weakening market resilience.

Still, some analysts say it is difficult to conclude that institutional money is exiting. Average daily trading value in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains above $3 billion, with major mutual funds and pension funds participating as investors. In addition, the value of Bitcoin held on-chain by listed companies such as Strategy (MSTR), MARA, XXI and Metaplanet exceeds $79 billion. Some countries, including Bhutan, El Salvador and the United Arab Emirates, have increased their Bitcoin holdings.

The options market has been relatively stable. Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio has hovered around 0.7, indicating that demand for put options (bearish bets) remains lower than demand for call options (bullish bets). Although Bitcoin recently failed to regain $72,000, the options market has not shown signs of sustained fear spreading or structural stress.

While derivatives data indicate that bulls’ conviction has weakened, institutional activity is holding up. Open interest in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) stands at about $7.5 billion, suggesting institutional participation remains intact.