Is the biggest beneficiary of the U.S.-Iran war the United States?… Energy companies surge and stocks hold up

Energy companies up 26% while the S&P 500 falls

U.S. stocks also outperform Europe, South Korea and Japan

After Iran’s attack forced the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility to halt operations, global natural gas prices have surged. Yet the U.S. market appears to be absorbing the shock relatively well. Analysts say ample domestic inventories and record output are allowing the U.S. energy market to act as a buffer that absorbs global supply disruptions.

According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 8th (local time), global natural gas prices jumped last week as key LNG export facilities were shut following the Iranian attack. However, U.S. natural gas prices rose by only about 11%, showing a comparatively stable trend versus overseas markets.

Analysts say that unlike four years ago, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine jolted global energy markets, U.S. households this time are unlikely to feel a heavy burden from higher electricity bills. They attribute this cushioning effect to ample U.S. gas inventories, record production, and LNG export capacity operating near maximum levels.

Investors expect U.S. energy companies to reprise the kind of strength seen in 2022, when the sector was among the few to post gains even as the broader market fell. In fact, so far in 2026, S&P 500 energy stocks are up about 26%, while the overall S&P 500 index is down about 1.5%.

Stable natural gas prices are supporting not only households but also manufacturing. Because natural gas is used both as fuel for power generation and as an industrial feedstock, price stability lowers production costs across industries such as steel, plastics, fertilizer and corrugated boxes.

Since the war began, U.S. equities have held up better than global markets. Last week, the S&P 500 fell about 2%, but South Korea’s KOSPI dropped roughly 11%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Europe’s Stoxx 600 each fell more than 5%.

Energy stocks have been strong, tracking the recent rise in crude oil prices. Before tensions in the Middle East escalated, U.S. crude prices had fallen to levels that threatened profitability for many producers, but prices have risen this year as Middle East tensions intensified.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures closed on the 6th at $90.90 a barrel. That is up about 36% since the United States and Israel began airstrikes on Iran, marking the biggest weekly gain on record.

Experts say it would be a highly meaningful achievement if the U.S. energy industry can expand without significantly increasing consumers’ burdens. Over the past decade, U.S. energy companies have developed massive oil and gas resources through the shale revolution, transforming the United States into the world’s largest fuel exporter.

Christopher Rooney, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said, “Under the current circumstances, there is a limit to how much risks stemming from global tensions can push up U.S. gas prices.”

In fact, U.S. natural gas prices remain low. April-delivery natural gas futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $3.186 per MMBtu. That is 57% below the peak recorded during the January cold snap and about 28% lower than a year ago.

MMBtu is a standard energy unit used in natural gas trading. A Btu is an energy unit based on the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of 1 pound of water by 1 degree Fahrenheit. “MM” is an abbreviation meaning “million” in energy and financial markets. Thus, MMBtu means 1 million Btu.

Conditions outside the United States are very different. In Europe, benchmark natural gas prices surged about 67% last week. Europe has become far more reliant on LNG for power generation since cutting off Russian gas supplies.

Asia, too, faces growing upward pressure on prices because of its heavy dependence on Middle Eastern LNG. Qatar’s state-owned energy company QatarEnergy halted LNG production after facilities in the Persian Gulf were attacked. This means about 20% of global LNG supply capacity was temporarily taken offline.

Uncertainty is also rising over maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy could escort vessels transiting the strait and added that his administration is also considering providing insurance to shipping companies operating in the area.

Another reason the U.S. situation is relatively stable is ample gas inventories. While Europe’s gas storage levels are unusually low, the United States is finishing the winter heating season with sufficient stockpiles.

Although the January cold snap sharply reduced U.S. gas inventories, by the end of February stocks were still only about 3% away from the five-year average.

U.S. LNG exporters are already shipping LNG at near-maximum levels, leaving limited room to increase supply, but they are expected to benefit from higher overseas prices.

Cheniere Energy, a leading U.S. LNG exporter, hit an all-time high in its share price last Friday. The company built the first LNG export terminal on the U.S. mainland in Louisiana and sells most of its output under long-term contracts, while retaining the ability to direct some volumes to markets offering higher prices.

Another LNG company, Venture Global, expects it will be able to sell more than 30% of its projected output this year on the spot market. Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel said, “In the short term, higher prices clearly help the company’s profitability,” adding, “We will be one of the companies with the largest amount of LNG cargo available in the current market.”

New York=Correspondent Park Shin-young nyusos@hankyung.com