"Bitcoin slips below the 200-week EMA…Oil and gold flows to steer near-term direction"

Bitcoin (BTC) is slipping below the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), a key technical support level, heightening caution over its near-term direction.

According to Cointelegraph on the 8th (local time), Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell to $66,569 over the weekend. That places it trading below the 200-week EMA (around $68,310), a major technical indicator.

Crypto (cryptocurrency) analyst Rekt Capital said that "if it fails to reclaim the indicator on a weekly closing basis, it could harden into resistance." He added, "Bitcoin once again printed a long upper wick above the 200 EMA, but gave back most of the recent rebound," and said, "if the weekly close ends below it, the EMA will become established as resistance."

This is the first time since March 2023 that Bitcoin has closed the week below the 200-week EMA. Some market participants, however, are also raising the possibility that past patterns could repeat. Trader Merlijn said that if a structure similar to 2023 forms, a strong rally could follow after Bitcoin breaks back above the EMA.

Meanwhile, the market is watching flows into safe-haven assets such as crude oil and gold, amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, as a variable that could dictate Bitcoin’s direction.

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe said "moves in oil and gold and silver are key variables for whether Bitcoin rebounds," adding that "if those asset flows develop in Bitcoin’s favor, a retest of next week’s highs could be possible." He added, however, that if the decline continues, he would "step in aggressively to buy around $60,000."

U.S. crude prices are currently up about 23% on the day, topping $111 a barrel, while gold has been pausing after attempting to retest record highs around $5,200.

Van de Poppe also noted that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) versus gold hit an all-time low. He said "the current reading suggests gold is overvalued in the short term and Bitcoin is undervalued."