Oil prices jump 55% in 10 days… “Bitcoin may rise after short-term volatility”

With international oil prices surging amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, analysts say the move could also influence bitcoin (BTC) price action.

According to Cointelegraph on the 9th (local time), international oil prices rose about 55% over the past 10 days, soaring to around $101 a barrel. The sharp rally is also jolting global financial markets, including pushing the S&P 500 to its lowest level in 10 weeks.

Bitcoin initially reacted positively. The price climbed about 16% from Feb. 28 through the middle of last week, but then gave back most of those gains, showing heightened volatility.

Markets are watching whether a Middle East war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran—could become protracted. In that case, elevated oil prices could intensify inflationary pressure and weigh on consumption, creating a broader headwind for risk assets.

However, past episodes suggest that a spike in oil prices has not always led to negative outcomes for bitcoin. For example, in June 2025, as tensions over Iran’s nuclear program escalated and WTI rose about 15% in a week, bitcoin initially fell but then gained about 10% over the following four weeks.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when oil prices jumped 29% in a week, bitcoin also rebounded early before falling again, but then rose about 25% over the subsequent three weeks. In November 2020, when WTI climbed about 23% over nine days, bitcoin gained about 16% over the same period and logged a roughly 45% rally in less than a month.

Taken together, recent examples show that when oil prices rose more than 15% over 10 days, bitcoin on average advanced about 20% over roughly four weeks. Still, analysts note that the sample size is limited, making it difficult to establish a statistically definitive correlation.