[Analysis] "Bitcoin short-term liquidity gauge declines…potentially entering an undervalued zone"

Source
JOON HYOUNG LEE

Summary

  • Crypto Dan said Bitcoin’s 1-week to 1-month holding ratio is in a significant downtrend, indicating it may be entering an undervalued zone.
  • He noted that historical data show periods when the ratio fell sharply overlapped with the bottom ranges of prior bear-market cycles.
  • Crypto Dan said market sentiment remains fragile, and suggested that diversifying risk across price ranges favorable in terms of both value and probability is a reasonable strategy to prepare for the next upswing cycle.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

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Trend in Bitcoin (BTC) '1-week to 1-month holding ratio'. Photo=CryptoQuant
Trend in Bitcoin (BTC) '1-week to 1-month holding ratio'. Photo=CryptoQuant

An analysis suggests Bitcoin (BTC) may have entered an undervalued zone.

Crypto Dan, a CryptoQuant contributor, said on the 11th (local time) via CryptoQuant that “one of the indicators frequently used to assess Bitcoin from a short-term liquidity perspective is the ‘1-week to 1-month holding ratio’,” adding that “this indicator is currently showing a pronounced downtrend.” Crypto Dan noted that “it is still somewhat elevated to conclude it is an absolute bottom,” but said it “suggests it may have gradually moved into a range closer to undervaluation compared with past cycles.”

He also cited historical data. Crypto Dan said, “In the past, periods when this ratio fell sharply were mostly formed in ranges similar to the bottoms of previous bear-market cycles,” and analyzed that “in other words, phases in which the share of short-term holdings declines often coincided with periods when market overheating subsides and the long-term holding structure strengthens.”

Crypto Dan also pointed out that “market sentiment remains fragile.” He suggested that “investors ultimately reach a point where they must compromise with the market to a certain degree,” and that “rather than trying to nail the exact bottom, it is a more reasonable strategy to diversify risk across price ranges where both value and probabilities are favorable to prepare for the next upswing cycle.”

JOON HYOUNG LEE

JOON HYOUNG LEE

gilson@bloomingbit.ioCrypto Journalist based in Seoul
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