"Unclear what the Iran war is for, no idea when it ends"…Allies 'confused'

Trump declines to answer on aims of Iran war or when it will end

Allies confused, each looks for its own way out

Unofficial diplomatic channels with Iran activated

"Trump may unilaterally declare victory and end the war"

As the U.S. and Israel’s attacks on Iran enter a third week, the purpose behind President Donald Trump’s decision to launch the war and his strategy for ending it remain unclear, leaving allies and adversaries alike in disarray. Trump is the single most influential figure with the power to end the conflict, but his shifting remarks and policy direction have made the war’s trajectory increasingly hard to predict, analysts say.

According to Bloomberg on the 16th, European leaders repeatedly pressed Trump during a recent call among Group of Seven (G7) leaders, asking about the war’s ultimate objective. Trump, however, said he could not spell out specific goals, while adding that he has multiple objectives and hopes the war will end soon, the report said.

The timing and conditions for an end to the fighting are also uncertain. After Trump told Fox News that the war would end "when I feel it in my bones," government officials in multiple countries have been left bewildered and concerned.

Rather than rallying behind the U.S., allies are scrambling to protect their own interests. Washington has requested military support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been blocked, but allies have been reluctant to respond. The strait is a critical sea lane through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass.

Some countries, instead of joining U.S.-led military operations, are moving to secure safe passage for their vessels through unofficial diplomatic channels with Iran. India, Turkey and others are said to be seeking separate talks to ensure the safety of their ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan, which often aligns closely with the U.S., also signaled it is unlikely to participate, saying there are "high hurdles" to joining escort operations. Frustration is also growing over the fact that the war began without sufficient consultation with allies.

In a Financial Times interview on the 15th, Trump said he could postpone a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if China fails to cooperate in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He also stressed that European allies need to step up more actively.

"If there’s no response, or a negative response, it would be very bad for NATO’s future," Trump said in the interview.

The U.S. government plans to announce as early as this week the formation of a multinational coalition to escort oil tankers. It remains unclear, however, whether the operation would begin during the war or only after it.

Iran, despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, has continued missile and drone attacks across the Middle East. As controls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz tighten, international crude prices have risen above $100 a barrel.

That is delivering a shock to the global economy and also weighing on Trump’s domestic politics. One of Trump’s aides recently urged publicly that he declare victory and end military operations.

European diplomatic officials believe the recent expansion of U.S. military operations may be nearing its peak. In other words, they say the U.S. could conduct a short, concentrated assault to degrade Iran’s remaining capabilities and then declare an end to the war.

While European officials view Trump’s claims that Iran’s military strength has been almost destroyed as somewhat exaggerated, they assess such statements could be intended to create political justification for ending the war.

Gulf countries are also voicing dissatisfaction, saying they have not been sufficiently briefed on U.S. war plans. Some Gulf officials believe the conflict began without consultation with them and say it remains difficult to discern Washington’s strategy.

There is also the possibility the war ends without negotiations. If Trump concludes his objectives have been met, or if the cost of the war becomes a political burden, he could unilaterally declare victory and end military operations.

Elliott Abrams, who served as the Trump administration’s special envoy for Iran, said, "President Trump has destroyed a substantial part of Iran’s military and naval capabilities and set back its nuclear program by years," adding, "If the president wants, he can stop the war and declare victory at any time."

New York=Shin-young Park, Correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com