[Morning Briefing] Trump: "Reaching common ground with Iran"…U.S. stocks rise

◆ U.S. stocks climb on hopes of an early end to the war…Dow up 1.4%

All three major U.S. indexes closed higher. On the 23rd (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.38% from the previous session to 46,208.47, the S&P 500 gained 1.15% to 6,581.00, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.38% to 21,946.76. Stock index futures had signaled a lower open, but optimism for an early end to the war resurfaced after U.S. President Donald Trump said just before the opening bell that he had held "very good and productive talks" with Iran "to resolve hostilities." Iran, however, denied that any talks took place, prompting the market to give back part of its intraday gains from the highs.

◆ Trump: "Iran wants a deal…holding off on power-plant attacks"

Speaking to reporters at an airport in Florida, President Trump said, "Iran wants to make a deal, and we also want a deal," adding that "we’ve reached common ground on key points." On the 21st, Trump had given Iran 48 hours and warned he would devastate power plants, but the policy is now to defer the attack for five days in light of the emerging agreement. "We agreed on about 15 items. The first is denuclearization," he said, adding, "If talks go smoothly, we can resolve the issue peacefully." He also noted that Iran’s negotiating counterpart was not Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

◆ Oil plunges as Iran attack is put on hold…Brent down 14%

Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump put plans to bomb Iranian power plants on hold. Brent crude plunged more than 14% intraday, dropping below $100 a barrel for the first time in two weeks. In Asian trading, Brent had been above $114 a barrel, but slid to around $96 immediately after Trump’s remarks about holding off. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also ended the session down 9.7% at about $88 a barrel. Dubai crude, which accounts for 70% of South Korea’s crude imports, has held at a comparatively elevated $134 a barrel.

◆ Iran: "No talks with the U.S."…rejects Trump’s negotiation claim

Iran’s government denied President Trump’s assertion that common ground had been reached, saying "there were no negotiations or talks over the past 24 hours." Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it "received messages via several friendly countries that the U.S. was seeking talks to end the war" and that it "responded appropriately in line with our principled position." Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, also wrote on X that "there were no negotiations with the U.S.," denouncing it as "fake news" aimed at manipulating financial and oil markets as the U.S. and Israel seek to "escape the quagmire."

◆ Urea prices jump 47% as Hormuz is blocked…food inflation risk

Concerns are rising that agricultural prices could climb after the Strait of Hormuz was sealed off amid the fallout from clashes involving the U.S., Israel and Iran. The price of Middle Eastern urea—a key feedstock for domestic fertilizer—has surged 47% in a month, raising expectations of higher fertilizer prices. Compared with 2024, urea prices have more than doubled, from $342 per ton to $715 per ton. For domestic cultivation of rice, vegetables and fruit, nitrogen fertilizer made largely from urea is widely used. The government says domestic fertilizer makers have five months’ worth of raw materials, so there will be no disruption in supply, but if the war drags on, higher agricultural prices look inevitable.

◆ Spring-like weather continues with highs near 20°C…watch for big day-night swings

On Tuesday the 24th, daytime highs will rise to 13–20°C, with a large day-night temperature gap of 15–20°C. Morning temperatures fell to around 0°C in inland and mountainous Gangwon, Chungbuk, and inland parts of North Gyeongsang Province. The Korea Meteorological Administration forecast frost in parts of the country’s inland areas. Dry weather advisories are in effect for parts of the Seoul metropolitan area, Gangwon Province, Daejeon, Chungbuk, Gwangju, North Gyeongsang, and the mountainous areas of Jeju Island, and conditions will be dry elsewhere as well. Skies will be mostly cloudy at times nationwide, with rain expected to begin on Jeju late at night. Fine dust is forecast to be 'Bad' in the Seoul metropolitan area, Sejong, South Chungcheong, and North Jeolla, and 'Moderate' elsewhere.

Oh Se-seong, Hankyung.com reporter sesung@hankyung.com