Bitcoin sees continued weak demand for leverage…derivatives market confirms 'muted optimism'

Indicators in the Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives market continue to reflect only muted expectations for a rise, underscoring investors’ lack of conviction.

According to Cointelegraph on the 23rd (local time), Bitcoin futures were trading at an annualized premium of about 2% to spot, well below the 4–8% range generally considered neutral. This suggests insufficient demand for leverage to bet on further upside. The pattern did not change materially even during the recent rebound toward around $76,000.

A similar tone is evident in the options market. Based on Deribit pricing and implied volatility for the $80,000 call option expiring in April, the market is assigning roughly a 20% probability that Bitcoin reaches that level. Given the typically optimistic bias of crypto markets, this is viewed as a low reading.

Despite the recent short-term bounce, overall market sentiment remains subdued. The roughly five-month downtrend following last October’s sharp drop is seen as having significantly eroded investor confidence. Analysts say the market’s structure itself was shaken at the time as large-scale liquidations coincided with macro shocks.

The stablecoin premium is also hovering at neutral levels. U.S. dollar–based stablecoins are trading at a premium of about 1.3% versus the yuan, with no signs of overheated demand or abrupt selling pressure.

The macro backdrop is also acting as a headwind. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining a cautious stance on the pace of rate cuts, funds are seen staying in fixed-income assets such as bonds. Added to that are Middle East geopolitical risks and concerns over rising oil prices, limiting risk appetite.

Market participants say Bitcoin needs new catalysts—such as oil-price stability and signals of monetary-policy easing—to shift into an additional uptrend. For now, neither on-chain data nor derivatives markets are showing clear bullish signals.