Bitcoin rebounds on hopes of easing geopolitical tensions… “The next five days will determine the direction”

As expectations grow that tensions in the Middle East will ease, Bitcoin (BTC) is staging a rebound, while an analysis suggests the near-term trajectory could be heavily driven by geopolitical factors.

On the 24th, digital-asset (crypto) market analytics firm Wintermute said on X (formerly Twitter) that “after President Trump paused strikes on Iran, the oil risk premium fell and Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000.” In the market, an assessment is emerging that the broader direction of risk assets could be determined by the path of oil prices and interest rates.

Wintermute said, “If geopolitical tensions ease, risk appetite could recover,” adding that “Bitcoin could retest the $74,000–$76,000 zone in the short term.” It also noted that “if disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persist or clashes re-escalate, there is also the possibility of a renewed drop into the mid-$60,000s.”

The macro backdrop was also flagged as a variable. Wintermute assessed that “as the likelihood grows that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates elevated for an extended period, this is acting as a constraint on risk assets.”

It also analyzed the recent move, saying “Bitcoin’s rebound has more of the character of a short squeeze driven by derivatives position liquidations than by spot demand.”

Meanwhile, the market expects whether geopolitical tensions ease over the next five days to serve as a key variable. Wintermute said, “Whether transport through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and diplomacy progresses will shape oil prices and inflation expectations,” adding that “this could in turn have a direct impact on Bitcoin’s direction.”