‘$12tn (about KRW 18 quadrillion)’ gate set to open… Bitcoin’s inclusion in US retirement plans now ‘imminent’

US 401(k) retirement plans likely to add crypto

“A medium- to long-term bullish catalyst for Bitcoin”

“$120bn in new demand could emerge”

A pathway has opened for the US 401(k) retirement-plan market—worth $12tn (about KRW 18 quadrillion)—to flow into virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) such as Bitcoin. As the White House completes its final review of related rules, the odds are rising that including crypto in retirement plans will be permitted within the regulated system.

On the 25th (local time), the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) cleared the US Department of Labor’s (DOL) “Guidelines for alternative-asset investments in retirement plans” in its final review. The proposal allows alternative assets—including virtual assets and private funds—to be included in retirement-plan portfolios. The Labor Department is expected to publish it in the Federal Register within weeks and make an official announcement.

The key is the introduction of a “safe harbor (liability waiver)” for plan fiduciaries. If the guidelines are finalized after a public comment process, companies and plan administrators would be able to substantially reduce liability exposure even when adding highly volatile assets. That, in turn, is expected to significantly lower the barriers for Bitcoin to enter the retirement-plan market.

Until now, 401(k)s have been managed primarily with traditional assets such as stocks and bonds. Companies have limited alternative-asset exposure due to concerns over litigation risk stemming from investment losses, and the Labor Department effectively blocked market entry by urging “extreme caution” on crypto in its guidance. However, the DOL withdrew the guidance in May last year, and in August of the same year President Donald Trump signed an executive order placing virtual assets within the category of alternative investments, accelerating the policy shift. The latest guidelines are seen as a measure that institutionalizes and specifies this pivot.

Markets expect the move to act as a medium- to long-term bullish factor for Bitcoin prices, because even a 1% allocation of 401(k) assets could generate $120bn (about KRW 18.07tn) in new demand. Some analysts also say long-term retirement flows could act as a buffer during price declines, improving market stability. With uncertainties persisting—from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to delays in advancing the US market-structure bill for digital assets (the Clarity Act)—there is speculation the measure could serve as a downside support level for Bitcoin.

Concerns about deregulation have also been raised. Private-fund watchdog PESP criticized the move, arguing it could expose investors to high fees and opaque risks. PESP warned that “if broad liability waivers are introduced for 401(k) investments, oversight of managers could weaken while risks are shifted onto investors.” In fact, private funds marketed to retail investors have charged high fees of about 4–5% per year even as they posted lower returns than public markets such as the S&P 500 over the past three years.

Criticism has also emerged that the change runs counter to the purpose of retirement plans. Lee Riners, a lecturer at Duke University’s Center on Financial Economics, said, “If investors want to speculate in virtual assets, they are free to do so privately,” but added, “A 401(k) is not a vehicle for investing in assets with uncertain intrinsic value; it is a system designed to build stable retirement savings.”