Bitwise: "Circle is an attractive investment…market cap seen at '$75bn' by 2030"

Global asset manager Bitwise said it expects the market capitalization of Circle, issuer of the U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC, to grow to $75 billion by 2030.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer (CIO), wrote in a “Weekly CIO Memo” on the 25th (local time) that “even under conservative assumptions, Circle’s market cap will reach $75 billion by 2030.” He added that “$75 billion is about double today’s value,” and said that “if Circle continues to expand market share as it has recently or finds new ways to generate revenue, the actual market cap could be much higher.”

Hougan highlighted the growth potential of the stablecoin market. “Citigroup, in its ‘base case,’ projected stablecoin assets under management (AUM) to reach $1.9 trillion by 2030,” he said, adding that “nothing in the news around the U.S. crypto market structure bill (the Clarity Act) is enough to change that base outlook.” He continued, “Interest income has not been the main driver of stablecoin growth to date, and most stablecoins currently do not pay interest,” adding that “stablecoins have surged in popularity because they enable efficient and reliable transfers of funds anywhere in the world.”

He also cited Circle’s competitiveness. “Circle holds a 25% share of the overall stablecoin market, but it has a much larger share in the regulated stablecoin market,” Hougan said. “If stablecoin AUM is expected to be concentrated primarily in the regulated onshore stablecoin market, Circle’s market share will rise well above current levels,” he argued.

Hougan stressed that “even with most assumptions set quite conservatively, Circle remains an attractive investment.” He said, “Circle has launched its own blockchain, is innovating payment technology, and is rapidly growing non-interest income businesses,” adding that “Circle’s current valuation is reasonable.”