Summary
- UBS said it has pushed back its forecast for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin rate cuts to September.
- UBS said the Fed’s wait-and-see stance has strengthened due to inflation, geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, and a resilient labor market.
- UBS added that while conditions are expected to improve in 2026, there remains significant uncertainty over the timing of rate cuts.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
UBS has pushed back its forecast for when the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates to September.
According to Walter Bloomberg on the 26th (local time), UBS expects that as inflation and geopolitical risks persist, the Fed will postpone rate cuts to September and then deliver an additional cut in December.
Economist Andrew Dubinsky said, "The Fed is waiting for a clear signal that inflation is easing," adding, "Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is still hovering around 3%, and part of that is due to the impact of tariffs."
In addition, rising oil prices driven by Iran-related tensions and a resilient labor market were cited as factors reinforcing the Fed’s wait-and-see stance.
UBS added that while conditions are expected to improve in 2026, the timing of rate cuts remains highly uncertain.
JH Kim
reporter1@bloomingbit.ioHi, I'm a Bloomingbit reporter, bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news.
