Summary
- UBS said it now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay its rate cuts until September.
- UBS noted that inflation and geopolitical risks, higher oil prices stemming from Iran-related tensions, and a resilient labor market are reinforcing the Fed’s wait-and-see stance.
- UBS added that while conditions may improve in 2026, there remains significant uncertainty around the timing of rate cuts.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
UBS has revised its forecast for the timing of interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), pushing it back to September.
According to Walter Bloomberg on the 26th (local time), UBS said that with inflation and geopolitical risks persisting, the Fed is likely to delay its first rate cut until September and then proceed with an additional cut in December.
Economist Andrew Dubinsky said, "The Fed is waiting for clear signs that inflation is cooling," adding, "Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is still hovering around 3%, and part of that reflects the impact of tariffs."
Rising oil prices driven by Iran-related tensions and a resilient labor market were also cited as factors reinforcing the Fed’s wait-and-see stance.
UBS added that while conditions are expected to improve in 2026, the timing of rate cuts remains highly uncertain.
JH Kim
reporter1@bloomingbit.ioHi, I'm a Bloomingbit reporter, bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news.
![Trump: "End the war within weeks"…Bitcoin remains under downside pressure despite ceasefire hopes [Kang Min-seung’s Trade Now]](https://media.bloomingbit.io/PROD/news/6e9db52a-d203-4915-a05d-26dd03717db5.webp?w=250)
