Prediction-market trades top 19.1 billion…capital increasingly concentrated in political and geopolitical issues

Blockchain-based prediction markets are rapidly expanding around political and macro events, with trading activity reaching a record high.

According to Cointelegraph on the 30th, Dune data show that the number of prediction-market trades in March exceeded 191 million. That represents an increase of about 2,838% from a year earlier.

Trading volume also surged. March’s monthly notional volume came in at about $23.9 billion, up sharply from $1.9 billion in the same period last year. However, it was about 12% below the record high posted in January.

In a recent report, TRM Labs said prediction markets are “expanding rapidly on the back of improved accessibility, shifts in the regulatory environment and integrations with major platforms.” It added that they are increasingly used as a gauge reflecting real-time political and geopolitical events.

In practice, interest appears to be concentrating on political and macro events rather than cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) topics themselves. TRM Labs said “U.S. politics, geopolitical incidents and macroeconomic decisions account for most of overall activity.”

Polymarket data also show that major contracts are concentrated on political events, such as whether a candidate will secure the 2028 U.S. presidential nomination and whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in office through year-end.

Still, regulatory risk is coming into focus as the market grows. With allegations of insider trading and potential violations of gambling rules, oversight is tightening. Kalshi and Polymarket have announced plans to introduce trading-limitation mechanisms, and in the U.S. Congress a bipartisan bill has also been introduced to ban “casino-style event contracts.”

TRM Labs said the sector’s sustained growth will depend on how it addresses key challenges such as potential market manipulation and ensuring fairness. At the same time, it noted that if liquidity and participation expand, prediction markets could emerge as a core information infrastructure reflecting policy, geopolitical and macroeconomic trends.