[Analysis] "Bitcoin’s spot returns reverting to neutral… but classic bottom signals still absent"

Bitcoin (BTC) spot return indicators are reverting to neutral levels, but there are still insufficient signals to confirm a cycle bottom, according to an analysis.

On the 30th (local time), Zizcrypto reported that Bitcoin’s spot total return indicator has, following the recent price correction, shown holding-period returns gradually converging toward neutral levels. The indicator measures price-based returns over a given period, illustrating changes in profitability across market regimes.

Historically, periods when returns remained in negative territory for an extended time largely coincided with phases of deepening bear markets, and tended to appear when market stress intensified or sharp sell-offs occurred.

By contrast, while returns are currently reverting to neutral, they have not yet entered the “deep negative zone” observed at prior cycle bottoms.

Zizcrypto assessed that “while it is true that upside momentum has weakened, it is difficult to say the market has entered a full-fledged bottoming phase.” The outlet explained that the extreme loss zone that typically accompanied bottom formation in past cycles has not yet emerged.

In conclusion, the analysis said the market is currently in a transitional phase, with upside drivers fading as it searches for direction, and that additional downside pressure—or time—may be needed before classic bottom signals are confirmed.