"Bitcoin could hit a record high in Q2 2027"…Skepticism over a 2026 rebound

A projection has emerged that Bitcoin (BTC) may struggle to regain its all-time high in the near term.

According to Cointelegraph on the 30th (local time), veteran trader Peter Brandt said Bitcoin may not break above the $126,100 peak set last October again until after Q2 2027. He added, "We won't see a new high in 2026," while noting that "this is only an estimate."

Market participants' expectations are also muted. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reclaiming $120,000 within 2026 is assessed at about 15%.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,000, down about 47% from its all-time high. Brandt also mentioned the possibility that prices could retest, or slip slightly below, the levels seen in September–October this year. In that case, that zone could mark the bottom of this cycle, followed by the start of a new upcycle.

Still, he maintained his view on Bitcoin's long-term value. He said, "The essence hasn’t changed in that Bitcoin is a store of value," and took a neutral to bearish stance on other altcoins.

Debate within the market over the four-year cycle theory is also continuing. While some judge that Bitcoin has entered a bearish phase, others argue that rising institutional demand has weakened the traditional cycle pattern.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo assessed, from a liquidity perspective, that Bitcoin is currently positioned at roughly one-third of the way through a bear market, and SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci said the market is in the bearish phase of the four-year cycle.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs recently ended a four-week streak of net inflows and posted net outflows of about $296.18 million. Investor sentiment also remains subdued. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has stayed in the "Extreme Fear" zone since March 20, recently registering a level around 8.

Some, however, are raising the prospect of a rebound. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is maintaining his earlier outlook that Bitcoin could set a new all-time high this year.