Oil tops $105… could it be a bearish signal for Bitcoin?

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

As international oil prices broke above $105 a barrel, it noted that Bitcoin has previously seen price corrections in this zone.
It said that when oil hit $105 in 2014 and 2022, Bitcoin fell 21%, 14%, and 27%, with one case marking the start of a prolonged bear market.
It assessed that with only three cases over about 12 years—and with separate factors such as the Mt. Gox collapse and the Terra-Luna implosion playing major roles—it is difficult to predict a Bitcoin decline based solely on a specific oil level.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

With international crude prices breaking above $105 a barrel and hitting the highest level in about four years, market attention is turning to the fact that this zone has historically coincided with corrections in Bitcoin (BTC).

According to Cointelegraph on the 30th (local time), instances of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading above $105 are concentrated in two periods—2014 and 2022. After oil climbed above $105 during the Islamic State (ISIS) advance into northern Iraq in June 2014, Bitcoin fell about 21% over roughly 10 weeks.

A similar pattern appeared in 2022. Shortly after oil breached $105 amid an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, Bitcoin slid about 14% in just a week. In that case, however, it recouped the entire decline within about a month.

In May the same year, oil also rose above $105 after the European Union (EU) announced a ban on Russian crude. Bitcoin then plunged 27% over about seven days, entering a prolonged bear market.

Still, some point out that the evidence is limited. With only three instances over roughly 12 years, analysts say it is difficult to draw a definitive correlation between oil and Bitcoin.

Cointelegraph noted that “in 2014, the Mt. Gox collapse, and in 2022, the Terra-Luna implosion, among other major events, were key drivers of the market downturn.” Although upward pressure on oil has intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of taking control of Iran’s oil industry, analysts say it is hard to prejudge a Bitcoin decline based solely on a particular oil-price level.

BTC