PiCK

"Will the war drag on"…On Polymarket, odds of a U.S.-Iran end to the war before June fall below 40%

Source

Uk Jin

Summary

On Polymarket, the probability of a U.S.-Iran end to the war before June fell to 39%, plunging 37% from the previous day.
The move was attributed to fallout from President Trump’s remarks signaling a powerful attack on Iran.
Bitcoin (BTC) has yet to recover after dropping below $67,000, and was trading at $66,808.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

As the war between the U.S. and Israel and Iran—shocking not only the crypto market but also global equities—intensifies, overseas bettors appear to be increasingly convinced the conflict is likely to last into June.

According to decentralized prediction market Polymarket on the 3rd (Korea time), overseas bettors put the probability that the U.S. and Iran end the war before May 31 at 39%. That marks a 37% plunge from the previous day.

The drop is seen as fallout from President Donald Trump’s strongly worded warning to Iran the day before. In a televised address on the 1st (local time), Trump declared, "Over the next 2–3 weeks, we will unleash a very powerful attack on Iran," adding, "I will send them back to the Stone Age."

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has yet to recover after slipping below the $67,000 level following Trump’s remarks. As of 6:37 p.m. this afternoon, Bitcoin was trading at $66,808, up 0.57% from the previous day on CoinMarketCap.

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