Can prediction markets expand in Asia? Tough regulation is the wild card

One of the most closely watched areas this year, prediction markets are seeking to expand into major Asian markets, but some observers warn they could be blocked by countries’ stringent regulatory environments.

On the 4th (Korea time), Cointelegraph, a virtual-asset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, reported that prediction markets are stepping up their push into Asia, viewing the region—home to high retail investor participation and sizable market scale—as a new growth opportunity.

Recently, Polymarket rolled out Chinese-language services as it moves to target Asian users. PredicXion is attempting to penetrate the market by focusing on Asia-specific content such as sports and political events in the region. Limitless has also been investing heavily in Asia, launching a Korea-only market.

Despite these industry efforts, the region’s characteristically strict regulations on gambling and virtual assets are cited as constraining factors.

In particular, major Asian countries are broadly applying tight restrictions to both areas. China, for example, bans virtual-asset trading and mining, and also imposes strong limits on online gambling. India, too, has limited market accessibility due to high taxation and regulation.

South Korea is no exception. Most gambling activities are legally prohibited domestically, and betting via offshore platforms may also fall under regulation. Japan likewise prohibits gambling in principle outside a handful of permitted areas such as lotteries and horse racing.

Some argue that it is not appropriate to view prediction markets as gambling. Regulators, however, are likely to interpret structures that involve wagering money on specific future outcomes as gambling. Even in the United States, where prediction markets are said to be active, debate continues over their gambling-like nature. The day before, a Nevada court deemed Kalshi’s sports-related products to be gambling and extended a ban by two weeks.