PiCK

Polymarket odds of 'US troops entering Iran in April' hit 96%…up 35 points from prior day

Source

Uk Jin

Summary

Polymarket reported that the odds of US troops entering Iran this month reached 96%.
It said this marks a sharp jump of 35 percentage points from 61% the previous day.
It attributed the move to US President Donald Trump’s strong warning and ultimatum toward Iran.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

As the war between the United States and Iran drags on, the odds in prediction markets that US ground forces will enter Iran within April have surged.

According to Polymarket on the 5th (Korea time), the probability of US troops entering Iran this month stands at 96%. That is up 35 percentage points from the previous day’s 61%.

The spike is seen as driven by US President Donald Trump’s overnight issuance of a stark warning to Iran on Truth Social.

The previous day, President Trump posted on Truth Social, “I gave Iran 10 days, and now 48 hours remain,” adding, “If they go beyond that, they will face hell,” in what amounted to an ultimatum. He went on to say, “They will have to negotiate or open the Strait of Hormuz.”