Polymarket odds of a US invasion of Iran jump to 63%…Bitcoin trades sideways around $67,000

The likelihood of a US invasion of Iran has surged, amplifying market uncertainty.

According to Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, on the 5th (local time), the odds that the US will invade Iran this year rose to 63%. The figure spiked following recent remarks by US President Donald Trump.

However, the probability of an invasion before 2027 remains below the 68% recorded on March 29. At the time, expectations peaked amid discussion of a US troop buildup in the Middle East and the possibility of seizing Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran’s crude oil exports.

Trading volume tied to the event was tallied at about $3.74 million.

President Trump has recently made hardline remarks hinting at military action involving Iran, stoking market volatility. At the same time, he has delivered messages at odds with earlier comments about a “possible withdrawal within 2–3 weeks,” adding to confusion over the direction of policy.

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to find a clear direction. It has continued to move in a narrow range near $67,500, showing little reaction even to heightened geopolitical risk.

Markets are increasingly assessing that the Trump administration’s mixed signals are weighing on investor sentiment and affecting risk assets broadly. With uncertainty growing over whether the conflict will persist and whether it could escalate, investors are staying on the sidelines.

Meanwhile, international oil prices have remained firm. Brent has held above $109 a barrel, reflecting supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions.