PiCK

Bitcoin may fall below $60,000… Hayes: "Cautious until liquidity expansion"

Source

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

Arthur Hayes said he warned that if geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran persists, Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 in the short term.
Hayes said he is maintaining a cautious stance on further investment while the Federal Reserve (Fed) has not yet moved to expand liquidity.
He maintained long-term upside potential, presenting a Bitcoin target price range of $250,000 to $750,000, and said the current Fear & Greed Index remains in the "Extreme Fear" zone.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

With Bitcoin (BTC) entering a short-term phase of heightened volatility, downside risks are being raised.

According to Forbes on the 5th (local time), Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently warned on the Coin Stories podcast that "if the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran persists, Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 in the short term."

Hayes said, "As long as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has not yet moved to expand liquidity, I am maintaining a cautious stance on additional investment." He added, however, that "if tariff policy fuels inflation and leads to capital controls, that could instead become a catalyst for expanding Bitcoin liquidity."

The long-term outlook remains positive. He maintained upside potential, presenting a Bitcoin target price range of $250,000 to $750,000.

Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions continue to enter the market. Charles Schwab plans to support spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum via new accounts in the first half of 2026.

On the market-data front, one analysis said Bitcoin’s relative strength is being confirmed. According to Mercado Bitcoin Research, Bitcoin consistently outperformed gold and the S&P 500 index for 60 days after major global shocks.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $68,800, while the Fear & Greed Index has remained in the "Extreme Fear" zone in recent weeks.

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