Standard Chartered’s Kendrick Says Bitcoin Could Drop to $50,000, Rebound to $100,000 by Year-End

Standard Chartered global head of digital-asset research

Sees $100,000 by year-end

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital-asset research, said Bitcoin could fall to as low as $50,000 in the near term before recovering to $100,000 by the end of the year.

In an interview with the Korea Economic Daily on April 8, Kendrick said the recent weakness in Bitcoin was driven by a correction in technology stocks and outflows from spot exchange-traded funds. Even so, he said Bitcoin’s role in portfolios alongside gold will continue to grow. Over the longer term, he sees Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2030. The following is an edited Q&A.

▶How do you view the recent Bitcoin market?

“The digital-asset market has been going through a difficult period recently, and Bitcoin is no exception. Bitcoin is currently down about 50% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached on Oct. 6 last year. For investors, this is a very disappointing stretch.”

▶That is a sharp decline. How does it compare with past cycles?

“The correction is large, but it is not especially unusual compared with past cycles. In 2022, Bitcoin fell as much as 75% as the Terra-Luna collapse and the failure of FTX hit at the same time. This decline also needs to be viewed in that historical context.”

▶What is the biggest cause of the current bear market?

“Bitcoin is now showing a very high correlation with technology stocks. Major tech shares such as Microsoft, Meta and Amazon have fallen 20% to 30% from their peaks, and Bitcoin and other digital assets are facing similar pressure. Macro factors and risk sentiment are strongly influencing Bitcoin prices.”

▶What is happening with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs?

“After ETFs launched in January 2024, the market saw a very positive stretch, and inflows remained strong through the first half of 2025. More recently, however, ETF holdings have fallen by about 100,000 Bitcoin. The average purchase price for ETF investors is around $90,000, and with Bitcoin now trading below that level, a meaningful number of investors are sitting on losses.”

▶Do you still see medium- to long-term demand holding up?

“Yes. Large amounts of capital flowed in during 2024 and around Donald Trump’s election and inauguration last year, and buying by companies pursuing digital-asset treasury strategies, including MicroStrategy, was also strong. There is a short-term correction, but I do not think structural demand has disappeared.”

▶You said Bitcoin should be viewed alongside gold. What do you mean by that?

“I see Bitcoin and gold at the portfolio level. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has made the asset much more accessible, and over time Bitcoin could take a larger weight in asset-allocation decisions. The market still does not hold enough Bitcoin. As time passes, the portfolio-optimization process could push Bitcoin prices higher.”

▶What is your short-term outlook?

“In the short term, a move down to $50,000 is possible. But I see that range as a very good medium-term buying opportunity. Markets are difficult and volatility is high, but that is exactly when long-term investors can build positions.”

▶What are your targets for year-end and the longer term?

“I expect Bitcoin to recover to $100,000 by the end of this year. Over a longer horizon, my target for 2030 is $500,000.”

▶What could trigger the next rebound?

“There is a possibility that the policy stance will turn more dovish with a change in Federal Reserve leadership in June. If that happens, it could create a more supportive backdrop for risk assets broadly and help Bitcoin as well.”

▶What would you like to say to investors now?

“This is clearly a difficult period. But I believe a positive rebound will ultimately come. I recommend buying Bitcoin during the current downturn.”

Cho Mi-hyun, Korea Economic Daily reporter mwise@hankyung.com