Clarity Act Has 30% Chance of Passing This Year, Wintermute’s Hammond Says

Uk Jin

Summary

Ron Hammond said the Clarity Act has only about a 30%% chance of passing this year.
The market views the Clarity Act as a measure that could spur institutional investor inflows by defining the oversight authority of the SEC and CFTC and the legal status of digital assets.
Disagreement over stablecoin interest income, resistance from the banking sector, support some lawmakers received from the crypto industry, and President Donald Trump’s potential conflicts of interest are all acting as variables.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

The Clarity Act, a US crypto market-structure bill, has only about a 30% chance of passing this year, CoinDesk reported, citing Ron Hammond, Wintermute’s head of policy.

Hammond said the legislative process is advancing, but uncertainty remains high. Political friction, delays in negotiations and schedule changes are still key variables.

The Clarity Act would reshape the US regulatory framework for digital assets. It aims to clarify the oversight roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while defining the legal status of digital assets. Market participants view the bill as a key measure for attracting institutional investors.

Disagreement over interest income on stablecoins, or crypto tokens pegged to fiat currencies, has delayed the bill’s passage. Hammond said the White House, Coinbase and policymakers sought a compromise, but negotiations have run into resistance from banks.

Political variables also remain. Some lawmakers are reconsidering their regulatory stance after receiving support from the crypto industry, Hammond said. Potential conflicts of interest tied to President Donald Trump’s crypto-related activities could also affect the bill’s prospects.