Bernstein Says Bitcoin’s 50% Slide From Peak Has Priced In Much of Quantum-Computing Risk

Bitcoin’s price decline has already priced in much of the risk posed by quantum computing, Bernstein said.

Cointelegraph reported on June 13 that Bernstein estimated Bitcoin had already absorbed much of the uncertainty tied to quantum computing after falling about 50% from its record high of $126,198 in October 2025. The firm said the threat is real, but not one that would cause an immediate collapse of the system.

The debate has flared up again after Google researchers raised the possibility that, under certain conditions, quantum computers could quickly break existing blockchain encryption. One analysis suggested a Bitcoin private key could theoretically be cracked in about nine minutes.

Bernstein said Bitcoin developers still have enough time to respond. It added that preparations for a transition to quantum-resistant security could be made over the next three to five years.

Possible technical responses are also being discussed. A recently proposed upgrade, BIP-360, is designed to reduce vulnerabilities associated with certain address types and could be applied through a soft fork to some exposed Bitcoin addresses. Even then, about 8% of dormant holdings could remain vulnerable.

Bernstein said institutional investors will play an important role in the response. Large capital allocators such as ETF issuers and corporate holders could help build consensus on the direction of future upgrades.

Some in the industry also argue that the main challenge in shifting to quantum-resistant security is social coordination rather than technology. Users would need to move wallets and keys to a new security framework, and that process could take considerable time.