Summary
- The Kospi broke above 6,200, leaving it just 81.22 points short of its record high of 6,307.27, and may post modest gains or trade flat as it approaches 6,300.
- As the US S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index set fresh intraday records, hopes for a ceasefire involving the US and Iran and between Israel and Lebanon are supporting the domestic market's uptrend.
- Still, with the won-dollar exchange rate rising to 1,479.20 won and Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate prices surging, pressure from rebounding oil prices and profit-taking could make the tug-of-war near 6,300 points intense.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
S&P 500, Nasdaq extend intraday record streak
Hopes for US-Iran talks, Israel-Lebanon ceasefire support sentiment
Won and oil prices, however, are surging
South Korean stocks look set to hold onto their gains on June 17 amid expectations that a second round of ceasefire talks between the US and Iran will be held this weekend. Optimism over a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is also supporting sentiment, though skepticism over a broader end to the conflict persists. After the Kospi broke above 6,200 for the first time since the war began, the index may post modest gains or trade flat as it approaches 6,300.
The Kospi closed up 2.21% at 6,226.05 on June 16, leaving it 81.22 points shy of its record closing high of 6,307.27 set on Feb. 26. Foreigners and institutions were net buyers of 464.5 billion won and 1.1036 trillion won, respectively, extending their buying streak to a third straight session. Retail investors were net sellers of 1.8073 trillion won.
Overnight on the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite again touched fresh intraday records. The S&P 500 rose to 7,051.23 during the session, while the Nasdaq reached 24,156.18. They closed at 7,041.28 and 24,102.70, respectively, each up 0.26%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 115.00 points, or 0.24%, to finish at 48,578.72.
The ceasefire between the US and Iran runs through June 21. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that talks with Iran had made substantial progress and that the two sides were very close to an agreement. “They have a very, very strong document saying they will not possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years,” he said. Asked whether he might go to Pakistan himself to finalize the negotiations, Trump replied that he would.
Trump has also repeatedly expressed optimism on Truth Social about the prospects for ending hostilities with Iran. He wrote that a ceasefire would begin at 5 p.m. Eastern time and that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to an official 10-day ceasefire. He also said he would invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to the White House.
The won weakened in overnight trading, closing at 1,479.20 per dollar, just below the 1,480 level. Despite hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire and news of an Israel-Lebanon truce, some caution remains over whether Washington and Tehran can reach a final deal. As of 2 a.m. on June 17, the won was trading at 1,479.20 per dollar, up 5.00 won from the previous close in Seoul.
Oil prices also jumped. Brent crude for June settlement on ICE Futures Europe rose 4.7% to close at $99.39 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 3.7% to settle at $94.69 a barrel.
Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said the battle between buyers and sellers around the 6,300 level could be intense. He cited limited upside in US stocks, the burden of rebounding oil prices, profit-taking pressure in US semiconductor shares and fatigue from the Kospi's extended rally.
Bae Sung-su, Hankyung.com reporter baebae@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
