Summary
- The report said uncertainty is rising as the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement ahead of a two-week cease-fire deadline.
- It said cease-fire talks have made no progress because of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the prospect of a US counter-blockade, and Trump’s inconsistent messaging.
- The report said Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants, saying the chances of extending the cease-fire were very small, while Iran responded that it would not yield to pressure.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
The US and Iran have failed to reach an agreement as a cease-fire deadline nears, heightening uncertainty. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the prospect of a US counter-blockade, President Donald Trump’s mixed messages and divisions within Iran’s leadership have all added to the uncertainty.
As of April 20, the war was in its eighth week. The two sides had made no progress in negotiations ahead of the expiration of a two-week cease-fire deadline. Trump put the deadline at the evening of April 22. His messaging on the talks lacked consistency, with conflicting remarks about the schedule and participants.
There was also confusion over the negotiating team. Reports differed on whether Vice President JD Vance was traveling. Trump said Vance was on his way to Pakistan and would arrive soon, while Reuters reported that the vice president was still in the US.
Some view Trump’s shifting remarks as an attempt to confuse Iran and gain leverage in the negotiations. Others say the comments undercut expectations of a swift resolution and point to instability in the president’s state of mind.
Iran also appears internally unstable. The country’s center of power looks to have weakened in the period after the Mojtaba Khamenei system took hold.
Differences between the Foreign Ministry and the military have also become apparent. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi referred to keeping the strait open, but the military declared a renewed closure. Iran has not confirmed whether it will take part in the negotiations. Statements supporting participation and rejecting it have emerged at the same time.
Trump maintained a hard-line stance, saying the chances of extending the cease-fire were "very small." He also threatened to destroy all of Iran’s bridges and power plants if no agreement is reached.
Iran responded in kind. President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country would "never bow to coercion or pressure" from the US.
Lee Song-ryeol, Hankyung.com reporter yisr0203@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
