Summary
- US jobless claims rose to 214,000, topping forecasts, but remained low by the standards of the past year.
- Both initial claims and continuing claims increased, but the gains were limited, leading to the view that the figures do not signal a sharp weakening in the labor market.
- The path of weekly jobless claims and continuing claims, along with April's employment report on job growth, unemployment and wages, will be key to assessing the next phase of the US labor market.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
New applications for US unemployment benefits rose slightly to 214,000 last week. Even so, they remained near the low end of the past year's range, suggesting there is still little evidence that layoffs are picking up in a meaningful way.
The Labor Department said on April 23 that initial jobless claims for the week ended April 18 increased by 6,000 from the prior week. The total of 214,000 exceeded the median estimate of 210,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The data drew market attention because the period overlapped with the reference week for the US government's April employment report. Weekly jobless claims are among the timeliest indicators of labor-market conditions and are closely watched for signs that layoffs are increasing.
Continuing claims, which reflect the number of people still receiving unemployment benefits, rose to 1.82 million in the prior week. While both initial and continuing claims increased, the gains were limited. The latest figures came in slightly above expectations, but did not point to a sharp deterioration in the labor market.
Initial claims have continued to fluctuate near the lowest levels seen over the past year. That broadly matches other recent economic data pointing to a stabilizing labor market. The job market appears to be moving from overheating toward normalization, but not yet into a phase of rapidly rising layoffs.
Even so, workers' anxiety about job security appears to be running ahead of the data. A Harris Poll survey conducted in late March found that about one in two employed Americans worry they could lose their job. Still, the latest claims figures do not yet show clear signs that those concerns are translating into a broader increase in layoffs.
The key question now is whether weekly jobless claims will remain near recent lows or whether the increase in continuing claims will signal that it is taking longer for unemployed workers to find new jobs. In the April employment report, payroll growth, the unemployment rate and wage trends will be key variables in assessing the next phase of the US labor market.
Kim Joo-wan, Hankyung.com reporter, kjwan@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
