Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Share Drops Below 7%, Nearing Potential Bottom Signal

A sharp drop in the share of short-term Bitcoin holders has brought the market close to what past cycles suggest is a bottom signal, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said.

On April 28, Martinez wrote that Bitcoin’s "Percentage Realized Cap," which tracks the share of the realized capitalization held by investors who bought within the past month, had fallen below 7%. That points to weaker participation from short-term investors, easing selling pressure and a shift toward a market structure dominated by long-term holders.

The indicator measures how much of the network’s total value is held by investors who purchased Bitcoin within the previous month. A lower reading indicates that short-term capital accounts for a smaller share of the market and that ownership is shifting toward long-term holders.

A reading below 7% typically means the market has gone quiet and retail interest has dropped sharply. In past cycles, declines in the share of short-term holders often coincided with much of the selling pressure being absorbed and the network’s value shifting toward long-term investors, helping form a price bottom.