Summary
- Bitcoin pulled back to around $76,500 after climbing above $79,000, tempering expectations for a renewed break above $80,000.
- The drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and rising inflation expectations have constrained hopes for easier monetary policy, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold.
- Inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the relative resilience of DeFi-related tokens, along with Bitcoin's break below its trend line and short-term moving averages, point to both the risk of a further pullback and the potential for the rally to resume if key moving averages are reclaimed.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin has extended its rebound, fueling expectations for a move back above $80,000. But macroeconomic data is capping the room for further gains.
CoinDesk reported on April 28 that Bitcoin retreated to about $76,500 after climbing above $79,000 earlier in the week. The rebound that began in late March from below $65,000 appears to be taking a breather.
Markets are focusing on recent economic data that has failed to underpin a stronger rally. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 49.8, a record low level, amid inflation pressure linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
Inflation expectations also rose სწრაფly. One-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.8% from 3.8% the previous month. Longer-term expectations for the next five to 10 years rose to 3.5%, the highest since October 2025.
That trend could limit hopes for easier monetary policy. Higher inflation expectations typically make central banks more cautious about cutting interest rates or supplying liquidity.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to leave its benchmark rate unchanged this week at 3.5% to 3.75%. At the same time, some investors are factoring in the possibility of a rate increase by the Bank of Japan.
Crypto-specific factors are also influencing the market. Inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are a key support for prices, while DeFi-related tokens have remained relatively firm as the response to the KelpDAO incident continues.
Technical signals also point to waning momentum. Bitcoin recently broke below its upward trend line and is trading beneath short-term moving averages, raising the possibility of a deeper pullback. Still, the uptrend could resume if it retakes key moving averages.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
