Bitcoin, Ether Deliver Mostly Positive Returns Over Five-Year Holding Periods

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

Delphi Digital said backtests of every five-year holding period for Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana since May 2016 showed mostly positive returns.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin posted losses in only 11 periods across the full sample, with the worst-case decline limited to about -13%%, while Ether and Solana had no losing periods when staking rewards were included.
In return terms, the median five-year gain was more than 8x for Bitcoin and about 13x for Ether, placing them near the upper end of the historical return distribution comparable to Nvidia shares, which have risen about 14x over the past five years.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin and Ether have generated gains in most five-year holding periods, according to an analysis by Delphi Digital.

The crypto research firm said April 29 that it backtested every five-year holding window for Bitcoin, Ether and Solana using daily price data from May 2016 onward. The results showed positive returns for most entry points.

Bitcoin posted negative returns in just 11 windows over the full sample period, the analysis found. Even in the worst case, the loss was limited to about 13%.

Ether and Solana, by contrast, did not record a single losing five-year period when staking rewards were included.

Longer-term performance was also strong. The median five-year return was more than eightfold for Bitcoin and about 13-fold for Ether.

That compares favorably with traditional assets. Nvidia shares, which have risen about 14-fold over the past five years, are in a range similar to the upper end of the historical return distribution for Bitcoin and Ether, Delphi Digital said.

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