Bitcoin Hits Resistance at $78,000-$79,000 as Balanced Flows Keep It Rangebound

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

Bitcoin’s rebound was capped at the average cost basis of short-term holders in the $78,000-$79,000 range, limiting further gains.
A large accumulation cluster formed over the past two months in the $65,000-$70,000 range, especially near $68,000, is acting as short-term support and a key structural floor.
With spot ETF flows and CME open interest stabilizing, while perpetual futures net short positions expand and volatility remains low, Bitcoin is likely to stay rangebound.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin’s rebound has run into a key resistance zone, pointing to a period of short-term consolidation as the market searches for direction, Glassnode said.

In its weekly report on April 29, Glassnode said Bitcoin was rejected in the $78,000 to $79,000 range at the average cost basis of short-term holders. The stalled advance shows short-term investors used the rebound to sell, a pattern typical of a bear-market rally.

Realized profits by short-term holders in that range climbed to about $4 billion an hour, signaling heavy profit-taking. Buying liquidity was not strong enough to absorb the supply, capping further upside.

There are signs of support below the market as well. A large accumulation cluster formed over the past two months in the $65,000 to $70,000 range is serving as short-term support. The area around $68,000 is a key structural support level, and whether Bitcoin holds above it could shape the next move.

Some supply-and-demand indicators are also improving. Net selling in the spot market has eased, while volume indicators have recovered to neutral levels, suggesting buying interest is starting to return. Spot exchange-traded fund flows and CME open interest have also begun to stabilize, raising the prospect of renewed institutional participation.

At the same time, defensive positioning has strengthened in derivatives markets. Net short positions in perpetual futures have expanded to a record high, pointing to rising hedging demand across the market. That reflects near-term downside pressure, while also leaving room for a short squeeze if flows reverse.

Volatility remains subdued as well. Realized and implied volatility are moving in similar patterns, suggesting the market has entered a stable phase marked by limited price swings.

Glassnode said Bitcoin is likely to remain rangebound, with upside momentum capped below major resistance and lower-level accumulation providing support. Its next directional move will depend on whether spot demand recovers and institutional capital returns.

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