Palantir, AMD Earnings in Focus as Wall Street Watches Iran Talks, Jobs Data
Summary
- US-Iran ceasefire talks, employment data, stagflation, and the possibility of a benchmark rate hold are key variables for New York stocks.
- Earnings from artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor companies Palantir and AMD are due this week.
- Depending on the results of China's manufacturing PMI, services PMI, trade balance, and export data, the rally in Shanghai stocks and in technology shares and resource stocks could continue.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
New York, Shanghai Stocks
Wall Street this week will be watching the progress of US-Iran ceasefire talks and signs of resilience in the labor market. Since the war began, Iran's economic troubles have deepened as inflation and the rial's exchange rate against the dollar have surged. The worsening strain on Iran's economy could add momentum to a second round of ceasefire negotiations between the two countries.
Another key variable is the US April nonfarm payrolls report due on May 8. A solid reading would help ease stagflation fears despite the recent jump in prices. FactSet estimates April payroll growth at 50,000, well below March's 178,000. The unemployment rate is projected to hold at 4.3%. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the federal funds futures market is pricing in a 77.7% chance that the benchmark rate will remain unchanged through the end of December. This week also brings earnings from Palantir and AMD, two closely watched names in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors.
In Shanghai, sentiment has improved after China's April manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in at 52.2, above expectations and adding to hopes for an economic recovery. The next test will be the Caixin services PMI due on May 6. If services activity also expands, the case for a bottom in the economy could strengthen and give stocks fresh momentum for a rebound.
China's April trade balance, due on May 7, is another key variable. Markets expect exports to show moderate growth. Fund inflows into technology and resource shares have become more pronounced in recent weeks. If the trade data confirms resilience in advanced manufacturing and information technology products, the rally centered on those sectors could continue.
Shin-young Park, New York correspondent, nyusos@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
