Global Crude Inventories Plunge 200 Million Barrels, Fueling Warning of Another Oil Spike

Global crude inventories are shrinking at a rapid pace in the aftermath of the Middle East war, stoking warnings that oil prices could surge again ahead of the summer travel season. Supply losses have exceeded the hit from weaker demand, tightening the market despite higher prices.

The Financial Times reported on May 6, citing S&P Global Commodity Insights data, that global crude inventories fell by about 200 million barrels last month, or 6.6 million barrels a day. Supply disruptions were larger than the roughly 5 million barrels a day of demand lost as prices rose, the newspaper said.

Jim Burkhard, head of crude oil research at S&P Global, said the drop was extraordinary. Global inventory moves are usually measured in the hundreds of thousands of barrels to 1 million barrels, not at this scale. He added that a market shock is moving closer and estimated that a total of 1 billion barrels of oil has disappeared from the market since the war with Iran began.

International oil prices have rallied since the war broke out in late February. Supply fears intensified after both Iran and the US restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure across the Middle East came under attack. The market view is that prices could climb further if global inventories fall below a critical threshold.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell about 4% to around $110 a barrel on May 6 as a ceasefire between the US and Iran held. Even so, the current pullback may prove temporary given the speed of the inventory drawdown.

S&P's figures include government strategic reserves, company inventories and crude stored on tankers at sea. They also reflect releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Global crude stockpiles are estimated at about 4 billion barrels, but a large share is tied up in refinery operations and maintaining pipeline pressure, limiting the amount that can be supplied to the market immediately.

Goldman Sachs said global crude inventories are approaching their lowest level in eight years. Refined-product inventories, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, have fallen to about 45 days of global supply. The steepest declines were in Asia and Africa.

Goldman Sachs added that the pace of supply declines in some regions and product categories is cause for concern. Jet fuel inventories in northern Europe fell in April to the lowest level in six years, and US gasoline inventories could approach a record low this summer.

Morgan Stanley said US gasoline prices have climbed close to $4.50 a gallon, but drivers have yet to cut back meaningfully. Oil consumed by US motorists is estimated at about one-eleventh of global demand. The bank projects US crude inventories could fall below 200 million barrels by the end of August.

Still, the US has not yet fully felt the shock of the energy crisis, according to Burkhard. He said US crude inventories remain above year-earlier levels. But if stockpiles begin falling sharply, broader market anxiety could spread. The full force of the crisis has yet to arrive, he added.

Kim Joo-wan, Hankyung.com reporter, kjwan@hankyung.com