Cardano Founder Says Odds of Commercial Quantum Computers by 2033 Exceed 50%

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson said advances in quantum computing could threaten blockchain security and that the industry needs to prepare.

Hoskinson said during a Consensus 2026 panel discussion that he sees more than a 50% chance of a fully commercial-grade quantum computing system emerging by 2033, Crowdfund Insider reported on May 16. Many of the cryptographic systems now used across the digital-asset industry could be vulnerable to quantum attacks, he added.

If quantum computers reach sufficient capability, they could use Shor's Algorithm to break the private-key and transaction-signing systems used by existing blockchain networks. That could lead to wallet hacks, identity forgery and disruptions to consensus mechanisms.

Cardano is pursuing the adoption of lattice-based cryptography to respond to that risk, according to Hoskinson. He said the approach is more resistant to quantum attacks than existing cryptographic systems and is designed to protect the network's core protocols.

He also said Cardano has incorporated quantum-resistant cryptography based on FIPS 203 through 206, U.S. federal cryptography standards, into its roadmap. The standards define post-quantum algorithms that U.S. government agencies and companies are adopting to replace existing cryptographic systems.

"The age of quantum computing is arriving faster than many expect," Hoskinson said. "Blockchain networks need to start testing defenses in real-world environments and prepare upgrades now."