Bitcoin Echoes 2022 Bear-Market Pattern With $70,000 Support in Focus

Bitcoin is tracing a pattern similar to the one seen during the 2022 bear market, according to CryptoQuant.

The Block reported on May 20 that Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, wrote in a report that Bitcoin’s current price action closely resembles the pattern that followed a rebound in March 2022 before another leg lower.

Bitcoin recently faced resistance near its 200-day moving average at $82,400 and then fell to about $76,000, Moreno wrote. In March 2022, Bitcoin rebounded about 43% from its low, stalled at the 200-day moving average and then resumed its decline. In the current cycle, it has risen about 37% from its April low and reached the same resistance zone.

The 200-day moving average has historically served as a key dividing line in bear markets between a rebound rally and a renewed downtrend. Failure to break above that level is a strong technical sign that the broader bearish structure remains intact.

On-chain demand indicators are also weakening. Moreno said speculative demand in the perpetual futures market, which led the rebound in April and May, faded quickly after Bitcoin moved above $82,000. As leveraged long positions continue to be liquidated, spot demand is also deteriorating at a faster pace.

Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds were also cited as a bearish factor. U.S. spot ETFs had recorded net purchases of about 64,000 BTC over the previous 30 days, but recently shifted to net sales of about 4,000 BTC, Moreno said.

He also pointed to the Coinbase Premium remaining negative during both the recent rebound and the pullback. That indicates demand from U.S. institutional and retail investors has yet to make a meaningful return.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has also worsened. The indicator recently fell from 40 to 20, which CryptoQuant classifies as an "extremely bearish" range. Moreno wrote that readings between 0 and 20 have often been followed by further declines or extended sideways trading.

Moreno identified the area around $70,000 as a key support level. The trader on-chain realized price near $70,000 could act as a major floor, he wrote. At that level, most investors’ unrealized profits tend to disappear, which has historically helped ease selling pressure.