Wintermute to Provide Liquidity to Prediction Markets, Calls Sector a Next Major Asset Class

Wintermute, a digital-asset liquidity provider, is moving into prediction markets.

Cointelegraph reported on June 1 that the firm plans to supply liquidity to prediction markets using its existing trading infrastructure, which handles about $3.5 trillion in annual volume.

Wintermute did not name specific platforms. It said it will continuously provide two-way quotes for event contracts on major prediction-market exchanges.

"Prediction markets have demand on the scale of a major asset class, but liquidity remains at an early stage," Jake Ostrovskis, Wintermute's head of OTC trading, said.

He said prediction markets need continuous two-way liquidity to develop into trusted venues that provide real-time probability signals. Deeper liquidity would tighten spreads, support larger trades and improve confidence in market pricing, he added.

Wintermute said prediction markets are evolving beyond simple forecasting tools into markets for trading event risk.

Industry participants say the move could further strengthen links between prediction markets and the decentralized finance, or DeFi, ecosystem. Examples include collateral reuse, yield strategies and oracle services that use prediction-market prices.

Weekly notional trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, the industry's two leading platforms, totals about $5.8 billion, according to DeFiRate. The sector has about 400,000 active markets and roughly 42.7 million weekly transactions.

Kalshi, which is regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has the largest market share at about 70%, the data showed. Political and sports events are the main trading categories on the two platforms.