Galaxy Research Cuts Odds of CLARITY Act Passing by 2026 to 60% Amid Senate Delay Concerns

The odds of the CLARITY Act, a US crypto market-structure bill, passing by the end of 2026 have fallen, according to Galaxy Research.

On June 5, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, wrote on X that he had lowered his estimate for the bill’s chances of passage by 2026 to 60% from 75%.

Thorn cited the Senate’s tighter-than-expected legislative calendar as the main reason. He wrote that the chamber now has to prioritize issues tied to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, raising the risk that debate on crypto legislation will be pushed back.

Much of next week’s Senate schedule is set to be devoted to FISA-related matters, which could delay CLARITY Act deliberations again.

Thorn also wrote that disputes over lawmakers’ ethics rules and illicit-finance provisions, including anti-money laundering measures, remain unresolved.

The CLARITY Act would more clearly divide digital-asset regulatory authority between the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The crypto industry views it, alongside the GENIUS Act on stablecoin regulation, as a key bill in building a US digital-asset regulatory framework.

The Senate had been expected to resume work on the CLARITY Act after the Memorial Day recess, but scheduling issues and political disagreements have slowed progress more than anticipated.