Bitcoin Demand, Not Four-Year Cycle, to Determine 2026 Market Direction: CryptoQuant

A recovery in Bitcoin demand, rather than the cryptocurrency’s traditional four-year cycle, will be the key factor in determining where the market goes next, according to a CryptoQuant analysis.

CryptoQuant contributor xWIN Japan wrote on June 15 that the key question for the Bitcoin market in 2026 is not whether the four-year cycle has ended, but whether demand can recover.

As the Bitcoin market matures, the extreme boom-and-bust cycles of the past are weakening, he wrote. Bitcoin’s MVRV, or market value-to-realized value ratio, has peaked at progressively lower levels in each cycle: 5.88 in 2013, 4.72 in 2017, 3.96 in 2021 and 2.74 in 2025.

Even though Bitcoin has climbed to a new all-time high, speculative excess is lower than in previous cycles, xWIN Japan said. That shows the market structure is maturing as institutional investors and spot exchange-traded funds become major participants.

Demand indicators, by contrast, are flashing negative signals. CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand data recently turned negative. The metric shows how much newly issued Bitcoin the market is absorbing.

Historically, the bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022 all coincided with prolonged periods of weak demand, he wrote. The market’s current challenge also lies in slowing demand rather than the cycle itself.

A similar pattern is appearing in derivatives markets. Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen sharply from its 2025 peak, indicating that much of the excessive leverage has been cleared out. Absolute positioning remains high, however, suggesting a typical capitulation phase may not have occurred yet.

Looking ahead, capital flows will matter more than the calendar for the Bitcoin market, xWIN Japan said. Inflows into spot ETFs, expanding stablecoin liquidity and whether companies continue accumulating Bitcoin could be the key variables determining the market’s direction in 2026.