Bitcoin Falls Back Below $66,000 Despite US-Iran Peace Deal as Relief Rally Fails to Convince

Bitcoin posted only modest gains despite news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, highlighting investors' cautious stance. While stocks and oil reacted immediately, the crypto market appeared to be waiting to see whether the agreement will hold.

CoinDesk reported June 16 that Bitcoin rose as high as $67,217 before surrendering those gains and trading around $65,845. The token was up 0.3% over the past 24 hours and 4.8% over the past week.

Altcoins were relatively stronger. Ether rose 2.8% from a day earlier to $1,764, while Solana gained 3.2% to $73 and XRP climbed 3.2% to $1.22. Hyperliquid's HYPE jumped 6.3%, the biggest advance among major digital assets.

The broader market backdrop improved. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, and Trump said the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently partially open, will be fully reopened on June 19.

International oil prices fell sharply in response. Brent crude dropped below $83 a barrel, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.1%.

Bitcoin, however, has lagged the recovery in risk appetite. Jimmy Xue, co-founder and chief operating officer at Axis, said oil had fallen more than 4% and Asian stock markets had risen more than 3%, yet Bitcoin had barely moved. The muted reaction shows the market has not fully trusted the agreement, he added.

That caution is also tied to the fact that this is the third ceasefire attempt. Bitcoin gave back all of its gains after the ceasefire agreement in April and again during the relief rally that followed June 9. Trump also warned the deal could fall apart if Iran does not agree to halt its nuclear program.

Supply-demand pressures also remain. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $5.4 billion in net outflows over the past four weeks, and there is still no clear sign that institutional investors are returning in force. At the same time, Bitcoin has continued to move from exchanges to cold wallets, a positive signal from a supply-tightening standpoint.

Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto under Franklin Templeton, said the current environment is favorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors should watch whether retail money that exited after the SpaceX IPO returns as the macro backdrop improves, he said.

Market participants are focused on the final US-Iran agreement signing scheduled for June 19 and the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 18 as the key variables that will determine Bitcoin's next move.